Here is ESPN's report about today's stage of the Tour de France, during which Spanish cyclist Alberto Contador captured the yellow jersey. (He also won the stage.) Lance Armstrong could not keep up with his teammate on the final climb, but lies second overall, 1:37 behind. If I were a betting man, I would bet that Contador wins the Tour. (He also won in 2007.) But it's not over yet. For one thing, Lance may have had a bad day. It happens to the best of riders as well as to the worst. There are still several mountainous stages yet to come, including the dreaded climb up Mont Ventoux on the race's penultimate day. There is also an individual time trial on Thursday. Contador beat Lance in the first time trial, but that doesn't mean he'll beat him again. If Lance stays with Contador in the mountains this week and takes a few seconds out of him in the time trial, we could have a showdown between teammates on Mont Ventoux. If Lance feels good that day and Contador doesn't, Lance could win the Tour. Again, I'm not saying this will happen. It probably won't. But it could. Never underestimate a man who has survived cancer, and never, ever underestimate a Texan.
Addendum: Even if Lance finishes second, it will mean something. He has been accused for years of using illegal performance-enhancing substances. This year, he is being tested almost daily. If he finishes second under these conditions, losing only to a much younger man who is, by all accounts, the world's best climber, perhaps people will stop saying that he "had" to have been cheating in order to win seven Tours. I'm rooting for Lance to retain second place. There might even be an all-Astana podium, because Andreas Klöden is riding very well.
Addendum 2: The first time trial, on the Tour's opening day, was only 9.6 miles. Contador beat Lance by 22 seconds. The second time trial will be 25.1 miles, nearly three times longer. That may mean that Contador takes a full minute out of Lance. Then again, it could mean that Lance takes a full minute out of Contador. It all depends on how Lance feels. He won many time trials during his seven Tour victories. It also depends on how well Contador handles the pressure of the yellow jersey. Some riders rise to the occasion; others crack. Lance has no obligation to let Contador win the time trial; nor can anyone blame him if he takes the overall lead on that day. It's each man for himself. I expect Lance to do the time trial of his life Thursday. If Contador beats him, then Lance will probably play the gentleman and assist Contador on the climb of Mont Ventoux. If Lance beats Contador, then the climb of Mont Ventoux could be a free for all.
Addendum 3: Here is the New York Times story, which contains information about the Hincapie incident of yesterday.
Keith Burgess-Jackson, J.D., Ph.D. 