Karl Rove's "glass half full" assessment of GOP presidential prospects in 2012 ("The 2012 Electoral Math Looks Good for the GOP," op-ed, May 5) is based in part on red state gains in population and electoral votes relative to blue states since 2008.
The "glass half empty" version of red state versus blue state gains since 2008 would note that Hispanics accounted for much of the population growth in states such as Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Texas; and Hispanic voters favored Mr. Obama over Mr. McCain by a two-to-one margin in 2008. In several other battleground states, African-Americans represent a very sizeable percentage of the electorate (in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia). Approximately 95% of African-Americans voted for Mr. Obama in 2008.
If Hispanics and African-Americans vote in proportion to their percentage of the population and if they favor President Obama by margins similar to those in 2012, it will be extremely challenging for a GOP candidate to carry several of the toss-up states. President Obama would need to win less than 40% of remaining votes (mostly non-Hispanic whites) in order to carry Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Nevada; and he would need slightly more than 40% of remaining votes to win Colorado, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. There is no quick and easy way to dislodge the Hispanic and African-American vote from the Democratic column. Any GOP presidential victories are more likely than not to be nail-biters until there is another seismic shift in voter allegiances.
Jeff Green
Charlotte, N.C.
The math for the 2012 election may look good to Karl Rove. However, without a viable candidate, no amount of creative counting is going to win an election. So far, the field of potentials looks mighty slim.
Vibeke Lichtman
Alamo, Calif.
Keith Burgess-Jackson, J.D., Ph.D. 