Why, you might ask, am I so confident that Donald Trump will be elected president come November? Here are (some of) my reasons:
- This is a watershed election. All signs indicate that the usual protocols, platitudes, and programs don't apply. Don't listen to anyone who failed to foresee Trump's nomination victory. Pundits have been wrong about him every step of the way. Why start believing them now?
- National polls are irrelevant. We vote in states. So what if Hillary Clinton gets the vast majority of votes in New York and California. That may enhance her popular vote, but it has no bearing on the electoral-college vote. How will she do in the swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania? By the way, it's politically incorrect to be publicly for Trump, so polls underestimate his support. People who plan to vote for him don't tell pollsters as much; they don't put bumper stickers on their cars or signs in their yards; and they certainly don't tell colleagues, students, neighbors, or friends. The votes will be there. Thank God for the secret ballot.
- Trump has been running against the mainstream media since he announced his candidacy more than a year ago. That the mainstream media run him down every day has no bearing on his popularity. If anything, it increases his popularity. (Keep it up, CNN.)
- Trump will get at least as many votes from Republicans as Romney did. Many Republicans stayed home in 2012. They will not stay home this time. They are energized.
- Trump will get far more votes from Democrats than Romney did. Many Democrats are patriotic; Trump speaks to them. Many Democrats are sick of relying on Democrat politicians to "take care of them." They believe that Trump's business experience will get the economy moving again. Many Democrats love Trump's opposition to unrestricted immigration.
- Trump will get more votes from the unaffiliated (the so-called independents) than Romney did.
- Trump will induce people who have not voted in years to vote again. He is a rock star. Watch his rallies. The excitement is palpable.
- Trump has not yet begun to define Hillary Clinton, who is deeply unpopular even among Democrats. As the election draws near, Americans will wonder whether they should put Bill Clinton back in the White House. They will worry that another Clinton administration will corrupt the executive branch as never before. Hillary Clinton is not trustworthy. Everyone knows this.
- Trump will continue to emphasize the importance of the United States Supreme Court. Do you really want Hillary Clinton choosing the next three or four justices?
I'm confident that Trump will win. I'm less confident that he will win in a landslide, but confident nonetheless. You can print this post if you like and rub it in my face if I'm wrong. I'm naked and unafraid.
