I'm on record as saying that Donald Trump will be elected president on 8 November. Here are my reasons for saying so:
- We saw in Brexit that there is a wide gulf between the elites and the people. The people rule. They're sick to death of being ruled by self-appointed elites, whether in Brussels or in Washington, DC.
- The polls are all over the place. Polling isn't science; it's politics. Garbage in; garbage out.
- Donald Trump's crowds are large and raucus. Hillary Clinton's crowds, by comparison, are small and uninspired.
- The American people are reluctant to give the White House to the same party for 12 consecutive years. It hasn't happened since 1988.
- Barack Obama's presidency was a one-off. It was based on white guilt. There is no "black" candidate this time around. (Please don't say that there's a female candidate; there is little or no "male guilt" in this country.)
- Trump and his supporters have been vilified, mocked, and abused for months. Why would anyone say, publicly, much less to a pollster, that he or she intends to vote for Trump? Would you put a Trump sign in your yard, a Trump bumper sticker on your car, or a Trump poster on your office door? I didn't think so. But I'll bet many of you intend to vote for Trump. When you go behind the curtain in the polling place, nobody but you knows how you voted.
- Trump makes people feel good (sunny, optimistic), just as Ronald Reagan did. Hillary Clinton is a bitter old woman who makes people—even her supporters—feel bad. Don't underestimate the nonrational element in politics. (Don't confuse "nonrational" with "irrational.")
As you were.
